BFCM Insights: Winners, Losers, and Surprises!

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Black Friday is no longer just about doorbuster deals—it’s a snapshot of evolving consumer preferences and economic realities. In this edition of Appjunction, we’re unpacking the winners, losers, and game-changing trends that shaped the biggest shopping day of the year.

Despite the push to move up the holiday season to ease the constraints of one of the shortest shopping windows in years, plenty of people saved their lists for after Thanksgiving Day.

Shoppers are expected to be careful about spending again at the holidays this year. For a couple of years now, inflation has dominated the news, obscured retail sales growth, shaken up consumers, and even overshadowed the presidential election that took place early this month. While inflation has eased and some retailers have made a point of slashing prices in recent weeks, budgets continue to be tight for many households. They may not get much relief if the tariffs promised by now President-elect Donald Trump come to pass.

This could have consequences for holiday sales. Nordstrom earlier this week said that sales trailed off at the start of the fourth quarter, suggesting that the momentum it experienced in Q3 may not hold up.

Still, Black Friday was busy. This year, worldwide, Black Friday hit its peak at just after 2 p.m. Eastern time, according to Block, which tracked transactions across its Square, Afterpay, and Cash App Card platforms. U.S. retail sales (excluding auto sales) were up 3.4% compared to Black Friday last year, according to Mastercard’s SpendingPulse report, which measured in-store and online retail sales, included all payment types, and was not adjusted for inflation.

Buy-now-pay-later plans helped finance purchases, driving 8.8% more in online spend than last year, reaching $686.3 million, per Adobe Analytics, which found that to be especially true for mobile shopping, with a 79.3% share compared to desktop so far.

Further numbers around Thanksgiving weekend sales will continue to be crunched in the coming days, but here are the ups and downs of Black Friday so far.

Winners

E-commerce

Cyber Monday appears to be losing its meaning, with many shoppers using their phones and computers on Black Friday to make headway on their holiday lists.

Salesforce found that on Friday, online sales in the U.S. rose 7% year over year to $17.5 billion, while Adobe found that they rose 10.2% to $10.8 billion. Between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m., $11.3 million was spent online every minute, per Adobe.

Chatbots and AI

The current buzz around artificial intelligence is giving rise to both fear and excitement, as questions swirl about the forward leap in tech and its effects, and they made their mark on Black Friday this year. AI and AI agents drove more than $14 billion in global online sales on Black Friday, and retailers employing generative artificial intelligence had a 9% higher conversion rate than those that didn’t, according to Salesforce.

Chatbots powered by AI were influential, as bot-driven clicks to retail sites rose by a whopping 1,800% compared to last year, Adobe found. A fifth of those surveyed by Adobe said they used chatbots to find deals, with 19% using them to find items and 15% using them for brand recommendations.

Toys

The toy category has encountered some rough times lately, with an 8% downturn in sales last year. Circana analysts over the summer warned that signs of a turnaround earlier this year held no guarantees, given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty around unemployment, record consumer debt, student loans, and consumer confidence.

But toys had a good day on Black Friday, with online sales up 622% compared to average daily sales last month, according to Adobe. Top sellers included Harry Potter Lego sets; items related to the “Wicked” movie; card and board games; Disney Princess toys and dolls; and the Cookeez Makery oven playset, per that report.

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Losers

In-store shopping

Employing old-fashioned seasonal enticements like doorbusters and entertainment, the Mall of America said that people began lining up early afternoon on Thanksgiving Day and that it welcomed more than 13,000 shoppers in the hour after it opened at 7 a.m. on Black Friday.

In general, however, it looks like this year’s e-commerce boost came at the expense of brick-and-mortar stores. Overall, store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.2%, with footfall down 7% in the Midwest, 2.1% in the Northeast, 3.5% in the South, and 3.2% in the West, according to data from RetailNext. Mastercard found that Black Friday online sales rose 14.6% year over year, while in-store sales rose just 0.7% year over year.

Moreover, online carts were more than twice the size of in-store carts, according to payment firm Block.

Prices and margins

Black Friday has long been about getting good deals, but some discounts this year were especially steep.

Adobe found that “discounts exceeded expectations” and were a purchase motivator for toys (with peak discounts of 27.8% off list price), as well as for electronics (27.4% off), televisions (24.2% off), apparel (22.2% off), computers (22% off), and sporting goods (19.5% off). Discounts are expected to remain elevated through the shopping weekend, per that report.

That’s a wrap on this week’s insights from Appjunction! Whether you’re planning your next big move or looking to stay informed on retail trends, we’ve got you covered. Stay tuned for more updates, and don’t forget to share your thoughts!